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NHL player props: find the best bets every night

Hockey Projections is built for NHL player props. For every game on the schedule it projects each skater's goals, assists and points, turns them into over/under probabilities and fair odds, and shows the things that move those numbers: ice time, power play role, the opposing goalie and the expected lineup. Compare the fair odds with your bookmaker's price and you can see within seconds which player props are worth a closer look tonight.

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What are NHL player props?

A player prop is a bet on one player's individual output in a game instead of the result of the game. The most common NHL player props are:

  • Goals – anytime goalscorer, or over/under 0.5 and 1.5 goals.
  • Assists – over/under 0.5 assists.
  • Points – goals plus assists, usually over/under 0.5 or 1.5 points.

Hockey Projections covers these three markets for every skater in the projected lineups.

How to find good player props, step by step

  1. Pick a game in the game strip, or open Top projections to see the highest-rated players of the day across all games.
  2. Check the lineup and the goalie. A player moved up to the first line or the first power play unit, or a weak opposing goalie, can change a projection a lot. The game header shows each team's expected goals (xG).
  3. Read the probability and the fair odds for the market you want, for example 1+ points or 1+ goals. Fair odds are the decimal odds that exactly match the probability, with no bookmaker margin.
  4. Compare with the bookmaker's odds. If the price on offer is clearly higher than the fair odds, the model sees value. If it is lower, the market is already paying less than the bet is worth.
  5. Test your own view. Disagree with a team's xG? Change it in the Customize xG tab and every player projection and probability is recalculated instantly.

What the projections are based on

Each team gets an expected goals (xG) figure for the game, and that goal total is shared between the players in the lineup. A player's share comes from three things:

  • Scoring and assist rates – this season's rates blended with last season and the league average, so a small sample does not swing the numbers too far.
  • Ice time – the player's share of even-strength and power-play time in the expected lineup.
  • Power play role – extra weight for players who play on the power play, since those minutes produce a large share of points.

The expected values are then converted to probabilities with a Poisson-based model, which gives the chance of at least one goal, assist or point, at least two, and the matching under lines.

Reading the numbers

  • Expected values are the average number of goals, assists or points the model projects.
  • Probabilities are the model's chance that the player reaches a line, such as 1+ points.
  • Fair odds are 1 divided by the probability. A 25% chance equals fair odds of 4.00.
  • Confidence shows how much data sits behind a projection. Players with few games played have lower confidence.

Tips for betting player props

  • Wait for confirmed lineups and the starting goalie before you bet. Props are usually voided or lose if a player does not play.
  • Shop around. The same prop can be priced very differently between bookmakers, and the difference is your edge.
  • Do not chase favourites. A heavy favourite for 1+ points can still be poor value at a short price.
  • Keep stakes small and consistent, and keep a record of your bets.

The projections are statistical estimates and carry no guarantee. Please gamble responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

What are NHL player props?

Player props are bets on a single player's performance in a game, such as goals, assists or points, instead of the game's result.

How do I find value in NHL player props?

Compare the bookmaker's odds with the fair odds on Hockey Projections. When the bookmaker's price is clearly higher than the fair odds for the same line, the model sees value.

What are fair odds?

Fair odds are the decimal odds that exactly match a modelled probability, without a bookmaker margin. A 25% chance equals fair odds of 4.00.

What is xG (expected goals) in hockey?

Expected goals is the number of goals a team is projected to score in a game. It is the starting point for every player projection on this site.

Which player props are covered?

Goals, assists and points for every skater in the projected lineups of all upcoming NHL games, with over/under probabilities and fair odds.

How often are the projections updated?

The page refreshes game data automatically while it is open, so expected goals, lineups and odds follow the latest information. The time of the last update is shown above the tables.

Is this betting advice?

No. The figures are statistical estimates with no guarantee of any result. Use them as information only.